What if I'd gone to university instead of working?

How this college ROI calculator works

This calculator replays going to university against starting work at 18, with real pay, tuition and student loan rules. Pick the year you turned 18, any year from 2000, and it follows two people to the latest year with pay data. One studies, for three years in the UK or four in the US, then earns what graduates their age earned that year. The other starts work at 18 and earns what non-graduates their age earned. It adds up each one's pay, takes off tuition and student loan repayments, and shows who is ahead each year and when the graduate caught up.

It compares a typical graduate with a typical non-graduate, not what one person would have earned either way: people who go to university differ in other ways too, so part of the pay gap would be there without the degree. Pay is for full-time workers, before tax, counted in whole years; the student earns nothing while studying. Living costs are left out on both sides, and so are maintenance loans.

In the US, pay is the Census average for full-time, year-round workers with a high school diploma or a bachelor's degree, by age. Tuition is the NCES average for a public four-year college, in state, or a private nonprofit one. Loans are federal Direct Loans at each year's undergraduate rate, repaid over ten years. In the UK (England), pay is the Department for Education median for full-time graduates and non-graduates, with ONS pay by age for 18 to 20 and for years the DfE series doesn't cover. Fees are the maximum each year, and student loans follow the real Plan 1 or Plan 2 rules: 9% of pay above the threshold, with interest.

Worked example

These use the calculator's starting figures for one UK case and one US case, and are refreshed when the data updates.

Had you gone to university at 18 in 2010 instead of starting work, by 2025, aged 33, you'd have earned, less fees and loan repayments, £39,756 more: £374,314 with a degree, against £334,558 without.

Had you gone to college at 18 in 2010 instead of starting work, by 2025, aged 33, you'd have earned, less tuition and loan repayments, $161,620 more: $773,868 with a degree, against $612,248 without.

Where the numbers come from

• UK: pay from the Department for Education's Graduate labour market statistics and the ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings; fees from the Student Fees regulations and the House of Commons Library; student loan thresholds and interest from the Student Loans Company; RPI from ONS and Bank Rate from the Bank of England. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
• US: pay from the U.S. Census Bureau's Current Population Survey (table P-32); tuition from the NCES Digest of Education Statistics (table 330.10); federal student loan rates from Department of Education notices in the Federal Register; Treasury bill yields from the Federal Reserve, via FRED.

Questions